Is Hong Kong ground zero for the next avian influenza pandemic?

The October 2005 issue of the influential National Geographic magazine featured a comprehensive article that included a two-page graphical portrayal of the past 100 years of avian influenza pandemics and outbreaks. Most of this article is available online, but the two-page spread is only available in the hardcopy publication. While the article praised Hong Kong’s excellent efforts to control avian influenza, it linked the 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic with subsequent localised and contained 1997 and 2003 H5N1 outbreaks in humans. It was therefore small wonder that in the magazine’s prediction of a forthcoming avian influenza pandemic, Hong Kong was designated as the ground zero (spawning ground) city.